10 Deals that Defined Private Markets in 2025
December 17, 2025
2026 Private Markets Predictions: Megadeals, Gigawatts, and Members Only Jackets
- Market commentary
January 7, 2026 | 6 min read
Managing Director, Senior Market Strategist
During this busy period of annual predictions, this is my attempt to put forth a few provocations meant to encourage thought and debate related to ideas that are top of mind for private markets investors.
Similar to 2025, my expectation is that 2026 will be about size and scale. Bigger deals, bigger valuations, bigger infrastructure requirements. What was once unthinkable a year ago, now seems inevitable: Companies that seemed impossibly large are being rapidly pursued by the next generation, AI power demands are no longer measured in megawatts but in gigawatts, and secondary market volumes that once defined a year now define a deal.
What a time to be alive! So, let’s get into it.
1. The $50 billion - $500 billion - $5 trillion club will become a thing
Mega buyouts exceeding $50 billion (Electronic Arts), minority “venture” financings of technology companies surpassing $500 billion (OpenAI), and large-cap tech valuations greater than $5 trillion (Nvidia) will rapidly move from universes of one, defined as the G.O.A.T., to universes of some. In one or two rare cases, we may see a $500 billion club member jump to the $5 trillion club over the course of 12 months, becoming the greatest of all time at both clubs. Who wants to design the logo for these Members Only jackets?
2. AI will catalyze the not so obvious renaissance for renewables and become its own asset class
AI’s insatiable appetite for energy will do more than strain grids. It will rewrite the economics of renewables. What governments once subsidized as “nice to have” will become “need to have,” driven not by policy but by demand. Wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear will graduate from virtue signaling to vital infrastructure, as AI workloads shift power requirements from megawatts to gigawatts. Leonardo da Vinci would be proud.
The above will help AI reach escape velocity with respect to its technology sector classification evolving into a full-blown asset class, just as emerging markets once graduated from a geographic descriptor to a distinct asset class with its own benchmarks and allocation mandates. Investors will soon ask, “What’s your AI allocation?” rather than “How much tech exposure do you have?” When a transformational force spans every sector, geography, and investment stage, I think we can all agree it deserves its own asset class.
3. Private markets architecture will be redefined as tech-enabled firms drive evolution in access, economics, and business model innovation
Access: Increased trading frequency, greater pricing transparency (perhaps daily), and advancing technology will make buying and selling private equity look more like buying and selling Berkshire Hathaway. It is ironic that Warren Buffett does not endorse private equity or cryptocurrency, yet the majority of his portfolio consists of private companies, and Web 3.0 (blockchain and tokenization) will facilitate this new trading paradigm.
Economics: If we agree that private equity combines economic interest in privately held companies along with value-added capital bundled in a base case business model comprised of 2% management fee and 20% carry, a battle between the economic interest and the value add for their rightful share of the economic 2-and-20 bundle is about to ensue. Those who have historically just delivered economic interest are increasingly thinking about how to deliver value-add.
Business model innovation: A firm comprised of DNA from banks and private markets with an affinity for technology could emerge and quickly scale to $1 trillion of AUM with fewer than 50 employees. The secret? A technology-first strategy. While this hypothetical new entrant is using genetic engineering to build its business, the incumbents are at risk of being stuck on Band-Aids.
4. Net Asset Value turns into private equity gold
As private equity portfolios mature and new sources of capital enter the ecosystem, NAV will transform into a precious commodity, akin to gold, defined by increasing scarcity. New capital sources seeking fully funded portfolio partners will anxiously “swipe right” revealing desire for this attractive NAV profile. Private equity portfolios with blue chip character traits sit atop this increasingly valuable ore, a commodity that cannot be manufactured overnight (instead taking years to curate) to meet surging demand.
5. Private markets will continue to bifurcate
At one end, oligopolistic and homogeneous category killers, differentiated by marketing and brand, pitching to the masses. At the other, fragmented and heterogeneous curators, defined by strategy, client engagement, and performance, pitching to the discerning.
If the challenge (and opportunity) is to deliver curated portfolios, first-class client experience, and industry alpha to all stakeholders, “diversification” must move from buzzword to risk management imperative. Understanding where the value creation comes from and whether it persists across cycles requires going beyond quartile rankings to granular, deal-level attribution. And proprietary analytics have shown that scale alone does not guarantee alpha. The winners will be those who curate portfolios that are both diversified and differentiated by combining data-driven insights with a multi-manager approach.
6. The Consensus Risk Trap becomes the diagnosis for our 2026 bout with insomnia
The most-covered financial themes of 2025 may become the most concentrated areas of risk in 2026. Risk is often not where the industry and the media are looking for failure, but where they are celebrating success without sufficiently scrutinizing concentration and valuation. Given this algorithm, I am not going to tell you the top three things that keep me up at night – at least not yet. But if risk is correlated to frequency of headlines, which private markets topics would you be losing sleep over? I am quite certain there is consensus around consensus risk. The alarms should really be sounding if anyone evangelizing these ideas uses them in combination with “The Golden Age of…” In that case, you should quietly start looking for the “gates.”
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Conclusion
As we look ahead, the private markets of 2026 will not be defined by incremental change but by structural shifts that challenge long-held assumptions. Scale will rewrite the record books, technology will redraw the boundaries of asset classes, and liquidity will blur the lines between public and private. Or will it? Regardless, success will not be achieved by those who predict the future perfectly, but those who build the agility to adapt when the unimaginable becomes inevitable.
For more in-depth analysis of the year ahead, check out our 2026 Market Outlook.
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