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Investors are experiencing significant market volatility stemming from tariffs and ongoing policy change. While this effect is immediately felt in public markets, it will inevitably affect private markets as well. And though near-term volatility can be unsettling for many, it can also create opportunity for long-term investors. Making strategic allocations to secondaries can be a valuable tool for investors through periods of market dislocation like we are experiencing today.
The secondary market is undercapitalized under normal conditions, but a significant increase in sellers coupled with potential buyers choosing to step back when markets falter has historically caused secondary pricing to decline. The chart below illustrates this point, showing that secondary pricing dipped in periods of market dislocation over the last 20 years.
Source: Greenhill Cogent, Global Secondary Market Review 2024 (January 2025) and Secondary Market Review (2005-2024). Annual data represents 12-month average for each full year. Secondary pricing represents average high bid across all strategies. As of December 31, 2024. Certain year end data is subject to revision and restatement by Greenhill Cogent in subsequent publications. The data presented above is based on the available reports released on a semi-annual basis concurrent with the period reported on.
Though buyers can obtain outsized pricing discounts in periods of volatility, there is no guarantee of strong returns. As always, skill and relationships are essential to identify high-quality assets and to choose the right deals. We have highlighted four current areas of opportunity for investors across the broader secondary markets.
As investors evaluate the loss in public equity value, they could experience the “denominator effect,” causing them to sell private market assets not for economic reasons, but rather to rebalance their portfolios. Also, investors experiencing liquidity constraints due to market dislocation could become forced sellers. And as a known current example, some higher education endowments are exploring the sale of their private equity exposures due to concerns over funding which would impact their immediate liquidity needs.
We believe that as today’s private investment holders make the difficult choice to free up capital and/or realign exposures, those with the ability to invest are positioned to benefit from large secondary sales of strong assets at potentially steep discounts. Coupling pricing advantages with a selection approach targeting assets that are expected to appreciate over time can produce significant returns.
In the GP-led space, we expect the further elongation of holding periods and the need to return capital to investors will lead to more continuation vehicle deal opportunities for secondaries buyers. Global M&A numbers were already at a two-decade low of 6,955 in the first quarter of 2025,1 as the prospects of a trade war dampened activity pre-tariffs. And while values were up versus the same period last year, this was driven by five mega-deals as opposed to a broader recovery.
Reflecting this subdued dealmaking environment, global private equity exits were also down in the quarter by both value and volume.2 With GP-led deals already accounting for $75 billion of secondaries volume last year, we expect this year’s total to be higher, given dealmakers’ wait-and-see approach to M&A.
The private credit market has continued to take market share from the commercial banks and the broadly syndicated loan market since the GFC. As a result, this market now represents over $1.6 trillion of AUM and is expected to surpass $2 trillion in the coming years. Through this growth, we anticipate there will be structural liquidity needs from both LPs and GPs and expect private credit secondaries to benefit from this trend.
As liquidity needs accelerate, we expect 2025 private credit secondary deal flow to be materially higher than the approximately $12 billion closed last year.3 We believe the undercapitalized nature of this market creates a compelling opportunity for investors to capture both a return premium and diversification benefits relative to the underlying assets.
Because infrastructure assets are highly regulated, often backed by long-term contracts, and typically include built-in inflation adjustments, historically they tend to deliver predictable returns and relatively stable valuations. These fundamental attributes have supported infrastructure’s continued performance even through volatile markets.
Investing in infrastructure through secondaries aims to provide additional layers of risk mitigation, such as exposure to seasoned assets, broad diversification, enhanced liquidity, and potential discounts supporting strong early performance. This fast-growing segment is also an undercapitalized marketplace – creating opportunity, even amid volatility, for those who know how to capitalize on it. We believe the inherent resilience of the asset class paired with the benefits of secondary investments makes infrastructure secondaries an attractive strategic allocation in the current market downturn.
Accessing the best quality deal flow in a difficult environment requires deep relationships across both the LP and GP communities. Understanding exactly what you are buying takes detailed and comprehensive due diligence on managers and, in GP-led deals especially, on their underlying assets. Pricing assets in uncertain times requires both skill and hard-won experience. Structuring deals when bid-ask spreads are wide takes in-depth knowledge and expertise.
Thus, the importance of selecting a secondary manager cannot be overstated. Through careful evaluation, investors can better navigate the complexities of – and capitalize on the opportunities presented by – turbulent markets. Key questions investors should ask include:
Connect with HarbourVest
HarbourVest’s secondary team benefits from extensive access to both LP-led and GP-led deal flow that allows us to pursue what we believe are the highest-quality assets. Our experience navigating through market cycles has helped us capture compelling opportunities across the entire universe of secondary investments. As one of the world’s five largest secondaries managers with historically strong performance and more than $62 billion deployed over 35+ years, we believe we are well-positioned to support investors interested in taking advantage of the opportunities available in today’s secondaries market. At HarbourVest, we continue to search for outstanding investment opportunities that will drive strong long-term returns for our clients through short-term volatility and across all of our investment strategies.
Ion Analytics, Global M&A volume climbs in 1Q25 amid decline in deal count – M&A Highlights (March 2025)
S&P Global, Private equity exits fall to 2-year low in Q1 2025 (April 2025)
HarbourVest Partners, LLC is a registered investment adviser under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. This material is solely for informational purposes and should not be viewed as a current or past recommendation or an offer to sell or the solicitation to buy securities or adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed herein represent the current, good faith views of the author(s) at the time of publication, are not definitive investment advice, and should not be relied upon as such. This material has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, HarbourVest does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information. There is no assurance that any events or projections will occur, and outcomes may be significantly different than the opinions shown here. This information, including any projections concerning financial market performance, is based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. The information contained herein must be kept strictly confidential and may not be reproduced or redistributed in any format without the express written approval of HarbourVest.
Nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, offer, recommendation, representation of suitability, legal advice, tax advice, or endorsement of any security or investment and should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in HarbourVest funds or in any other investment decision.
An investment in the private markets involves high degree of risk, and therefore, should be undertaken only by prospective investors capable of evaluating the risks of the Fund and bearing the risks such an investment represents. The following is a summary of only some of the risks of investing in private markets.
Risks Related to the Structure and Terms of a Private Markets Fund. Investments in a fund of funds structure may subject investors to additional risks which would not be incurred if such investor were investing directly in private equity funds. Such risks may include but are not limited to (i) multiple levels of expense; and (ii) reliance on third-party management. In addition, a fund may issue capital calls, and failure to meet the capital calls can result in consequences including, but not limited to, a total loss of investment.
Illiquidity of Interests; Limitations on Transfer; No Market for Interests. An investor in a private markets fund or account will generally not be permitted to transfer its interest without the consent of the general partner of such fund. Furthermore, the transferability of an interest will be subject to certain restrictions contained in the governing documents of a closed-end fund and will be affected by restrictions imposed under applicable securities laws. The interests should only be acquired by investors able to commit their funds for an indefinite period of time, as the term of the closed-end fund could continue for over 14 years. In addition, there are very few situations in which an investor may withdraw from a private equity closed-end fund. The possibility of total loss of an investment in a fund exists and prospective investors should not invest unless they can readily bear such a loss.
Risk of Loss. There can be no assurance that the operations of a strategy will be profitable or that the strategy will be able to avoid losses or that cash from operations will be available for distribution to the limited partners. The possibility of partial or total loss of capital of the strategy exists, and prospective investors should not subscribe unless they can readily bear the consequences of a complete loss of their investment.
Leverage. The strategy may use leverage in its investment strategy. Leverage may take the form of loans for borrowed money or derivative securities and instruments that are inherently leveraged, including options, futures, forward contracts, swaps and repurchase agreements. The strategy may use leverage to acquire, directly or indirectly, new investments. The use of leverage by the strategy can substantially increase the market exposure (and market risk) to which the strategies’ investment portfolio may be subject.
Availability of Suitable Investments. The business of identifying and structuring investments of the types contemplated by the strategy is competitive and involves a high degree of uncertainty. Furthermore, the availability of investment opportunities generally will be subject to market conditions and competition from other groups as well as, in some cases, the prevailing regulatory or political climate. Interest rates, general levels of economic activity, the price of securities, and participation by other investors in the financial markets may affect the value and number of investments made by the strategy or considered for prospective investment.
Reliance on the General Partner and Investment Manager. The success of the strategy will be highly dependent on the financial and managerial expertise of a fund’s general partner and investment manager and their expertise in the relevant markets. The quality of results of the general partner and investment manager will depend on the quality of their personnel. There are risks that death, illness, disability, change in career or new employment of such personnel could adversely affect results of the strategy. The limited partners will not make decisions with respect to the acquisition, management, disposition or other realization of any investment, or other decisions regarding the strategies’ businesses and portfolio.
Market Risk. Private equity, as a form of equity capital, shares similar economic exposures as public equities. As such, investments in each can be expected to earn the equity risk premium, or compensation for assuming the non-diversifiable portion of equity risk. However, unlike public equity, private equity’s sensitivity to public markets is likely greatest during the late stages of the fund’s life because the level of equity markets around the time of portfolio company exits can negatively affect private equity realizations. Though private equity managers have the flexibility to potentially time portfolio company exits to complete transactions in more favorable market environments, there’s still the risk of capital loss from adverse financial conditions.
Credit Strategy Risks. A fundamental risk associated with credit investments is credit risk, which is the risk that a borrower will be unable or unwilling to make principal and interest payments on its outstanding debt obligations when due. Investments in subordinated or junior debt investments, should an issuer trigger an event of default, depending on the capital structure and the issuer’s financial situation, a loss of the entire value of the investment is possible. Adverse changes in the financial condition of an issuer or in general economic conditions (or both) could impair the ability of such issuer to make payments on its debt and result in defaults on, and declines in, the value of its subordinated debt more quickly than in the case of the senior debt obligations of such issuer. Adverse changes in the financial condition of an issuer or in general economic conditions (or both) could impair the ability of such issuer to make payments on its debt and result in defaults on, and declines in, the value of its subordinated debt more quickly than in the case of the senior debt obligations of such issuer.
Infrastructure Strategy Risks. Investments in infrastructure and real assets entail certain specific risks, including fluctuations of commodity prices, uncertainty of reserves, exploration and development risks, uncertainty in the developing alternative energy markets and technology, and governmental support and regulations. Infrastructure strategies may be exposed to substantial risk of loss from environmental claims arising in respect of its investments. Furthermore, changes in environmental laws or regulations or the environmental condition of an investment could create liabilities that did not exist at the time of its acquisition and that could not have been foreseen. Investments in natural resources and energy services companies, including mining and oilfield service, product manufacturing, and technology businesses that are involved in the preparation, drilling, completion, production, and abandonment of oil and gas wells and mines could be subject to fluctuations in the demand for their services based on commodity prices, the macroeconomic environment, customer concentration, availability of alternative technologies or services and political or market pressures favoring these alternatives. Environmental groups could protest about the development or operation of infrastructure assets, which might induce government action to the detriment of the Fund.
Secondary Investing Risk. Secondary market transactions may impose higher costs than other investments and may require a fund to assume contingent liabilities associated with events occurring prior to the Fund’s investment. The overall performance of an Underlying Portfolio Fund acquired through a secondary transaction will depend in large part on the purchase price paid. In addition, a fund will generally not have any ability to negotiate terms with respect to interests in Underlying Portfolio Funds invested in through secondary market transactions.
“Professional Investor” under the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Cap. 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong) (the “SFO”) and its subsidiary legislation) means:
(a) any recognised exchange company, recognised clearing house, recognised exchange controller or recognised investor compensation company, or any person authorised to provide automated trading services under section 95(2) of the SFO;
(b) any intermediary, or any other person carrying on the business of the provision of investment services and regulated under the law of any place outside Hong Kong;
(c) any authorized financial institution, or any bank which is not an authorised financial institution but is regulated under the law of any place outside Hong Kong;
(d) any insurer authorized under the Insurance Ordinance (Cap. 41 of the Laws of Hong Kong), or any other person carrying on insurance business and regulated under the law of any place outside Hong Kong;
(e) any scheme which-
(i) is a collective investment scheme authorised under section 104 of the SFO; or
(ii) is similarly constituted under the law of any place outside Hong Kong and, if it is regulated under the law of such place, is permitted to be operated under the law of such place,
or any person by whom any such scheme is operated;
(f) any registered scheme as defined in section 2(1) of the Mandatory Provident Fund Schemes Ordinance (Cap. 485 of the Laws of Hong Kong), or its constituent fund as defined in section 2 of the Mandatory Provident Fund Schemes (General) Regulation (Cap. 485A of the Laws of Hong Kong), or any person who, in relation to any such registered scheme, is an approved trustee or service provider as defined in section 2(1) of that Ordinance or who is an investment manager of any such registered scheme or constituent fund;
(g) any scheme which-
(i) is a registered scheme as defined in section 2(1) of the Occupational Retirement Schemes Ordinance (Cap. 426 of the Laws of Hong Kong); or
(ii) is an offshore scheme as defined in section 2(1) of that Ordinance and, if it is regulated under the law of the place in which it is domiciled, is permitted to be operated under the law of such place,
or any person who, in relation to any such scheme, is an administrator as defined in section 2(1) of that Ordinance;
(h) any government (other than a municipal government authority), any institution which performs the functions of a central bank, or any multilateral agency;
(i) except for the purposes of Schedule 5 to the SFO, any corporation which is-
(i) a wholly owned subsidiary of-
(A) an intermediary, or any other person carrying on the business of the provision of investment services and regulated under the law of any place outside Hong Kong; or
(B) an authorized financial institution, or any bank which is not an authorised financial institution but is regulated under the law of any place outside Hong Kong;
(ii) a holding company which holds all the issued share capital of-
(A) an intermediary, or any other person carrying on the business of the provision of investment services and regulated under the law of any place outside Hong Kong; or
(B) an authorized financial institution, or any bank which is not an authorised financial institution but is regulated under the law of any place outside Hong Kong; or
(iii) any other wholly owned subsidiary of a holding company referred to in subparagraph (ii); or
(j) any person of a class which is prescribed by rules made under section 397 of the SFO for the purposes of this paragraph as within the meaning of this definition for the purposes of the provisions of the SFO, or to the extent that it is prescribed by rules so made as within the meaning of this definition for the purposes of any provision of the SFO.
The first of such classes of additional “professional investor”, under the Securities and Futures (Professional Investor) Rules (Cap. 571D of the Laws of Hong Kong), are:
(k) any trust corporation (registered under Part VIII of the Trustee Ordinance (Cap. 29 of the Laws of Hong Kong) or the equivalent overseas) having been entrusted under the trust or trusts of which it acts as a trustee with total assets of not less than HK$40 million or its equivalent in any foreign currency at the relevant date (see below) or-
(i) as stated in the most recent audited financial statement prepared-
(A) in respect of the trust corporation; and
(B) within 16 months before the relevant date;
(ii) as ascertained by referring to one or more audited financial statements, each being the most recent audited financial statement, prepared-
(A) in respect of the trust or any of the trust; and
(B) within 16 months before the relevant date; or
(iii) as ascertained by referring to one or more custodian (see below) statements issued to the trust corporation-
(A) in respect of the trust or any of the trusts; and
(B) within 12 months before the relevant date;
(l) any individual, either alone or with any of his associates (the spouse or any child) on a joint account, having a portfolio (see below) of not less than HK$8 million or its equivalent in any foreign currency at the relevant date or-
(i) as stated in a certificate issued by an auditor or a certified public accountant of the individual within 12 months before the relevant date; or
(ii) as ascertained by referring to one or more custodian statements issued to the individual (either alone or with the associate) within 12 months before the relevant date;
(m) any corporation or partnership having-
(i) a portfolio of not less than HK$8 million or its equivalent in any foreign currency; or
(ii) total assets of not less than HK$40 million or its equivalent in any foreign currency, at the relevant date, or as ascertained by referring to-
(iii) the most recent audited financial statement prepared-
(A) in respect of the corporation or partnership (as the case may be); and
(B) within 16 months before the relevant date; or
(iv) one or more custodian statements issued to the corporation or partnership (as the case may be) within 12 months before the relevant date; and
(n) any corporation the sole business of which is to hold investments and which at the relevant date is wholly owned by any one or more of the following persons-
(i) a trust corporation that falls within the description in paragraph (k);
(ii) an individual who, either alone or with any of his or her associates on a joint account, falls within the description in paragraph (k);
(iii) a corporation that falls within the description in paragraph (m);
(iv) a partnership that falls within the description in paragraph (m).
For the purposes of paragraphs (k) to (n) above:
An institutional investor as defined in Section 4A of the SFA and Securities and Futures (Classes of Investors) Regulations 2018 is:
(a) the Singapore Government;
(b) a statutory board as may be prescribed by regulations made under section 341 of the SFA, as prescribed in the Second Schedule of the Securities and Futures (Classes of Investors) Regulations 2018;
(c) an entity that is wholly and beneficially owned, whether directly or indirectly, by a central government of a country and whose principal activity is —
(i) to manage its own funds;
(ii) to manage the funds of the central government of that country (which may include the reserves of that central government and any pension or provident fund of that country); or
(iii) to manage the funds (which may include the reserves of that central government and any pension or provident fund of that country) of another entity that is wholly and beneficially owned, whether directly or indirectly, by the central government of that country;
(d) any entity —
(i) that is wholly and beneficially owned, whether directly or indirectly, by the central government of a country; and
(ii) whose funds are managed by an entity mentioned in sub‑paragraph (c);
(e) a bank that is licensed under the Banking Act 1970;
(f) a merchant bank that is licensed under the Banking Act 1970;
(g) a finance company that is licensed under the Finance Companies Act 1967;
(h) a company or co‑operative society that is licensed under the Insurance Act 1966 to carry on insurance business in Singapore;
(i) a company licensed under the Trust Companies Act 2005;
(j) a holder of a capital markets services licence;
(k) an approved exchange;
(l) a recognised market operator;
(m) an approved clearing house;
(n) a recognised clearing house;
(o) a licensed trade repository;
(p) a licensed foreign trade repository;
(q) an approved holding company;
(r) a Depository as defined in section 81SF of the SFA;
(s) a pension fund, or collective investment scheme, whether constituted in Singapore or elsewhere;
(t) a person (other than an individual) who carries on the business of dealing in bonds with accredited investors or expert investors;
(u) a designated market‑maker as defined in paragraph 1 of the Second Schedule to the Securities and Futures (Licensing and Conduct of Business) Regulations;
(v) a headquarters company or Finance and Treasury Centre which carries on a class of business involving fund management, where such business has been approved as a qualifying service in relation to that headquarters company or Finance and Treasury Centre under section 43D(2)(a) or 43E(2)(a) of the Income Tax Act 1947;
(w) a person who undertakes fund management activity (whether in Singapore or elsewhere) on behalf of not more than 30 qualified investors;
(x) a Service Company (as defined in regulation 2 of the Insurance (Lloyd’s Asia Scheme) Regulations) which carries on business as an agent of a member of Lloyd’s;
(y) a corporation the entire share capital of which is owned by an institutional investor or by persons all of whom are institutional investors;
(z) a partnership (other than a limited liability partnership within the meaning of the Limited Liability Partnerships Act 2005) in which each partner is an institutional investor.
An accredited investor as defined in Section 4A of the SFA and Securities and Futures (Classes of Investors) Regulations 2018 is:
(i) an individual —
(A) whose net personal assets exceed in value $2 million (or its equivalent in a foreign currency) or such other amount as the Authority may prescribe in place of the first amount;
(B) whose financial assets (net of any related liabilities) exceed in value $1 million (or its equivalent in a foreign currency) or such other amount as the Authority may prescribe in place of the first amount, where “financial asset” means —
(BA) a deposit as defined in section 4B of the Banking Act 1970;
(BB) an investment product as defined in section 2(1) of the Financial Advisers Act 2001; or
(BC) any other asset as may be prescribed by regulations made under section 341; or
(C) whose income in the preceding 12 months is not less than $300,000 (or its equivalent in a foreign currency) or such other amount as the Authority may prescribe in place of the first amount;
(ii) a corporation with net assets exceeding $10 million in value (or its equivalent in a foreign currency) or such other amount as the Authority may prescribe, in place of the first amount, as determined by —
(A) the most recent audited balance sheet of the corporation; or
(B) where the corporation is not required to prepare audited accounts regularly, a balance sheet of the corporation certified by the corporation as giving a true and fair view of the state of affairs of the corporation as of the date of the balance sheet, which date must be within the preceding 12 months;
(iii) A trustee of a trust which all the beneficiaries are accredited investors; or
(iv) A trustee of a trust which the subject matter exceeds S$10 million; or
(v) An entity (other than a corporation) with net assets exceeding S$10 million (or its equivalent in a foreign currency) in value. “Entity” includes an unincorporated association, a partnership and the government of any state, but does not include a trust; or
(vi) A partnership (other than a limited liability partnership) in which every partner is an accredited investor; or
(vii) A corporation which the entire share capital is owned by one or more persons, all of whom are accredited investors.
Continuation solutions encompass a host of transaction types in which a GP secures interim liquidity and/or additional primary capital for their LPs in a strongly performing asset, or set of assets, that the GP will continue to own and control. Specifically, they include continuation funds, new funds created by GPs for the purpose of acquiring the asset(s) that continue to be managed by the same GP and capitalized by one or several secondary buyers, or equity recapitalizations involving a direct equity or structured equity investment into a portfolio company. These transactions can also include a parallel investment from the GP’s latest fund into that same pool of assets (a “cross-fund trade”).
