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The Evergreen Revolution: Bold Predictions for Private Markets' Next Frontier

  • Strategy insight

February 11, 2025 | 6 min read

Drew Snow, CFA

Principal,
Portfolio Manager

Abigail Rayner

Principal

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How permanent capital structures are poised to transform private markets for wealth management and institutional investing

Evergreen funds are experiencing the same dynamic they promise to investors: compounding. Early adoption has shown the structure works. What we believe comes next is acceleration at a speed that will make the current moment look like a warm-up.

At a time of year when many investors have just published their annual forecasts (including HarbourVest’s own Scott Voss, with his 2026 Private Markets Predictions), we are taking a step back to look further ahead.

Here are our top 10 predictions for what is in store over the next several years for evergreens — and private markets, as a result.

We have designed these topics to be thought-provoking. Will we get everything right? Most certainly not. Ideally, this serves as a conversation starter about themes that could shape the future.

1. The VC Arbitrage: Venture Capital Evergreens Unlock a $3 Trillion Opportunity

Despite venture capital and growth equity representing 27%1 of the private equity market — with venture capital assets totaling $3.2 trillion — they constitute only 3.4% of evergreen funds. Private equity evergreens, meanwhile, achieved record inflows in 2025.2

The convergence of these trends represents one of the greatest arbitrage opportunities in private markets today. To capture it, in 2026, we expect that multiple venture capital and growth equity evergreen funds will launch, offering wealth investors access to alpha potential from investments previously reserved for institutions and ultra-high-net-worth individuals and families. By extension, we also anticipate that the related secondary market and technology-enabled liquidity options will continue to expand and mature.

2. The Continuation Vehicle Pipeline: Continuation Vehicles Become the "Quality Intake Valve" for Evergreen Private Equity

Secondary deal volume for private assets reached a record $226 billion in 2025, marking a 41% increase from 2024, driven by deal structure innovation and ongoing liquidity needs. Nearly half of all secondary activity, about $106 billion, was general partner (GP)-led transaction volume, with single-asset continuation vehicles representing roughly 42% of GP-led transactions.3

Our prediction here is that single-asset and concentrated continuation vehicles will emerge as the most reliable sourcing mechanism for evergreen private equity portfolios. This will enable GPs to hold onto their best assets longer and offer evergreens access to seasoned, risk-mitigated exposures with substantially lower J-curve drag. Continuation vehicles can function as a cost-effective way to extend transformational company growth without the disruption of a change-of-control event.

3. The Co-Investment Squeeze: Evergreen Funds Crowd Out Others

Approximately $16 billion was raised in evergreen funds in the first half of 2025 alone.

We think the proliferation of evergreen vehicles will create a structural crowding-out effect related to co-investment deals. Top-tier GPs now have to balance several constituencies all competing for the same excess capital from high-quality deals, including their own internal evergreen funds, long-standing institutional limited partners (LPs) with established co-investment rights, and growing demand from other evergreen funds to serve the wealth channel. This zero‑sum dynamic means that co‑investment opportunities may become materially scarcer in 2026 and 2027, particularly for smaller platforms. This scarcity could drive a strategic shift toward multi‑manager funds with embedded co‑investment programs, secondary‑focused vehicles that acquire co‑investment positions, or direct investment platforms. Access to top-tier GP co-investments will be a key differentiator for evergreen fund managers.

4. The Private Credit Expansion: Beyond Senior Lending to Structural Solutions

Private credit remains dominant, with direct lending assets tripling since 2022, but the future lies beyond vanilla senior secured lending as investors increasingly seek exposure to more sophisticated sub-asset classes.4 The volume of credit secondaries transactions rose from $6 billion in 2023 to $10 billion in 2024, with expectations to increase to more than $17 billion in 2025.5 The expansion includes credit secondaries addressing LP and GP liquidity needs, opportunistic credit strategies in distressed, special situations, and structured credit, and infrastructure and asset-based lending covering equipment, aircraft, shipping, and real estate-backed credit.

Investors seeking yield in a declining-rate environment, diversification from traditional fixed income, and inflation protection will drive continued expansion into these sub-asset classes, which we expect will command 35-40% of private credit evergreen allocations by 2027, up from approximately 20% today. Private credit secondaries could reach more than $40 billion in transaction volume by 2027, creating entirely new investment opportunities.

5. The Great Stress Test: Redemptions Expose the Unprepared

A market dislocation – whether a credit spread blow-out or macro shock – will expose which evergreen fund managers have genuine operational scale and structural safeguards versus those operating with fragile liquidity management. As Warren Buffett famously said, “It’s only when the tide goes out that you discover who’s been swimming naked.”

While investors like the liquidity features of evergreens, the funds typically also have some type of “gating” restrictions to limit redemptions, meaning they allow only a portion of assets to be redeemed within a set time period. When redemption requests spike simultaneously during market stress, funds without robust liquidity reserves will be forced to sell assets at below-market prices, destabilizing their portfolios. We believe this is inevitable.

Following this type of shake-out, capital will concentrate toward demonstrated performers and trusted brands with transparent, sound valuation practices. Regulators around the world will likely implement stress-testing requirements similar to those applied to banks and insurance companies, permanently changing the evergreen landscape.6

6. The Valuation Wars: AI Daily NAV Triggers Regulatory Focus

AI-powered valuation models are poised to become the industry standard for daily net asset value (NAV) calculations in evergreen funds. This technological adoption is likely to trigger fierce regulatory and industry debates.

For many evergreen funds, monthly or even daily NAV calculations are required. This creates challenges because many underlying investments are illiquid, are infrequently priced, and rely on differing valuation approaches. As a result, legitimate concerns about valuation accuracy persist. We believe the proliferation of AI-driven marks will spark controversies over transparency, “black box” methodologies, mark-to-model gaming, potential manipulation, and manager conflicts of interest in valuation governance. We expect the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and international regulators to demand standardized valuation disclosure, independent third-party validation of algorithms, and enhanced audit trails for all machine-learning-driven marks by 2027. Some managers may challenge these requirements, while others will embrace transparency as a competitive advantage, creating a two-tier market of valuation credibility.

7. The Trans-Atlantic Takeover: ELTIF 2.0 Explodes Past €75 Billion

As of May 2025, a total of 159 European Long-Term Investment Funds (ELTIFs) had been registered, designed to make private assets more accessible to European retail and institutional investors.7 The pace of expansion is quickening. After 62 were authorized in 2024, there were over 80 new ELTIFs launched through the first three quarters of 2025.

The ELTIF 2.0 structure’s dramatic momentum in Europe, particularly in France where the government required insurers to allocate a portion of life insurance and pension savings to unlisted assets, demonstrates the power of regulatory support for democratizing private markets.8

Most respondents of an October 2025 Scope survey expected that by 2027, total ELTIF assets under management would reach €31-41 billion – a 30% increase from current levels (€20.5 billion in October 2025).9 We believe ELTIF assets will grow more quickly, surpassing €75 billion by late 2026, continuing the development of evergreen strategies designed to capture European wealth and institutional capital flows, creating truly trans-Atlantic product platforms.

8. The 401(k) Evolution: Private Markets in Defined Contribution Plans Start Slow, Transform by 2055

With guidance set to be issued soon, U.S. regulatory changes encouraging private market exposure in retirement accounts seem likely to accelerate the shift toward alternatives in defined contribution plans. We anticipate near-term adoption will be slow, as plan sponsors carefully consider fiduciary concerns, operational complexity around valuation and liquidity, participant inertia and low financial literacy, and limited product availability with appropriate fee structures.

However, we believe the 30-year transformation will be revolutionary. Personalized glide paths incorporating both public and private assets will become standard. Target‑date funds in 2055 could more closely resemble today’s endowment‑style portfolios.

By 2055, defined contribution plans may be largely unrecognizable versus today, with portfolio construction completely re-thought. Portfolios might include at least 15-25% private market allocations, with evergreen funds enabling seamless integration of private equity, credit, real assets, and infrastructure exposures as well as standard allocations to cryptocurrencies and digital assets. Concurrently, public market allocations could shrink to 50-60% of portfolios, compared with more than 95% today.

9. The Mass Customization Era: Fund-of-One Evergreens Become an Attractive Standard for Institutions and Family Offices

In our view, ultra-high-net-worth families, large advisor groups, and institutional investors will increasingly adopt high-touch, bespoke perpetual structures that integrate evergreen features and expertise to deliver against personalized objectives. This shift will represent a fundamental repositioning of evergreen vehicles – from liquidity-focused alternatives to institutionalized partnership platforms that emphasize long-term value creation.

We believe institutional evergreen separately managed accounts (SMAs) will be set up to deliver:

  • Bespoke strategy access and tactical portfolio construction: Customized exposure to niche sectors, emerging and longstanding managers, and/or proprietary deal flow with dynamic rebalancing and tactical decision-making authority.
  • Liquidity, cash, and exposure optimization: Tailored distribution policies and capital deployment pacing that match institutional cash flow requirements, liability schedules, or strategic reallocation needs without the constraints of standardized tender policies.
  • Continuous engagement and greater transparency: Ongoing knowledge transfer through dedicated investment teams, real-time portfolio monitoring, and collaborative decision-making that builds internal institutional capabilities.

This evolution recognizes that institutions and family offices value expertise, continuity, and structural alignment over liquidity optionality, positioning evergreen SMAs as perpetual partnership vehicles rather than quasi-liquid or finite-lived alternatives.

10. The Public-Private Convergence: Portfolio Construction Gets Reimagined

Evergreen funds can provide a simple way to manage private market allocations while delivering the benefits of compounding returns.

The artificial distinction between “public” and “private” markets will erode rapidly as wealth investors increasingly target exposure to equities, credit, and infrastructure with greater focus on risk-return profiles, liquidity needs, and time horizons than on public versus private investment classification.

Technology will evolve to meet the growing needs of wealth clients, with central hubs emerging where investors can easily buy and sell both public and private securities from a single dashboard. By 2028, we expect tech-enabled simple solutions will be available for rebalancing across public stocks, bonds, ETFs, and evergreen private market funds, with AI-powered portfolio construction tools recommending optimal allocations across the entire liquidity spectrum.

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Conclusion

We expect evergreen adoption will only compound from here, but truthfully there are myriad possibilities. We foresee potential impacts in areas we’ve covered: on private market asset classes themselves, evergreen fund operational models, and acceptance by various investor types.

What do you think?

Footnotes
  1. Preqin Global Reports “Private Equity in 2026” and “Venture Capital in 2026” Venture Capital AUM is $3.2T (March 2025); Private Equity AUM excluding Venture Capital is $8.6T (December 2024)
  2. Morningstar Pitchbook “Evergreen Fund Landscape” (Q4 2025)
  3. Evercore Private Capital Advisory “2025 Secondary Market Highlights” (January 2026)
  4. Morningstar Pitchbook “Evergreen Fund Landscape” (Q4 2025)
  5. Jefferies “A Dramatic Shift in the Credit Secondaries Market” (July 2025)
  6. AIF European evergreens already have liquidity stress-testing requirements.
  7. ELTIF 2.0 – A Widening Investment Spectrum for Retail and Institutional Investors (May 2025)
  8. Scope Explorer “Solid growth in ELTIF market; new regulation to drive further expansion” (May 2024)
  9. Scope Fund Analysis “ELTIF Market Update” (4 November 2025) ELTIF is an EU framework designed specifically for long-term investments in private assets. This compares to SICAV vehicles which are flexible legal structures that can be used for liquid and daily traded funds.
Disclosure

HarbourVest Partners, LLC (“HarbourVest”) is a registered investment adviser under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. This material is solely for informational purposes; the information should not be viewed as a current or past recommendation or an offer to sell or the solicitation to buy securities or adopt any investment strategy.  In addition, the information contained in this document (i) may not be relied upon by any current or prospective investor and (ii) has not been prepared for marketing purposes. In all cases, interested parties should conduct their own investigation and analysis of the any information set forth herein and consult with their own advisors. HarbourVest has not acted in any investment advisory, brokerage or similar capacity by virtue of supplying this information.  The opinions expressed herein represent the current, good faith views of the author(s) at the time of publication, are not definitive investment advice, and should not be relied upon as such. This material has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, HarbourVest does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information. The information is subject to change without notice and HarbourVest has no obligation to update you.  There is no assurance that any events or projections will occur, and outcomes may be significantly different than the opinions shown here. This information, including any projections concerning financial market performance, is based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. The information contained herein must be kept strictly confidential and may not be reproduced or redistributed in any format without the express written approval of HarbourVest. 

Evergreen Investing Risk. An evergreen fund is an alternative investment fund that has an indefinite life span and continuously raises capital rather than having a predetermined fundraising period and lifecycle, as do traditional private equity or venture capital funds. Prospective investors should be aware that an investment in an alternative investment is speculative and involves a high degree of risk. Alternative Investments often engage in leveraging and other speculative investment practices that may increase the risk of investment loss; can be highly illiquid; may not be required to provide periodic pricing or valuation information to investors; may involve complex tax structures and delays in distributing important tax information; are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds; and often charge high fees. There is no guarantee that an alternative investment will implement its investment strategy and/ or achieve its objectives, generate profits, or avoid loss. An investment should only be considered by sophisticated investors who can afford to lose all or a substantial amount of their investment.

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Professional Investor Definition

“Professional Investor” under the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Cap. 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong) (the “SFO”) and its subsidiary legislation) means:

(a) any recognised exchange company, recognised clearing house, recognised exchange controller or recognised investor compensation company, or any person authorised to provide automated trading services under section 95(2) of the SFO;

(b) any intermediary, or any other person carrying on the business of the provision of investment services and regulated under the law of any place outside Hong Kong;

(c) any authorized financial institution, or any bank which is not an authorised financial institution but is regulated under the law of any place outside Hong Kong;

(d) any insurer authorized under the Insurance Ordinance (Cap. 41 of the Laws of Hong Kong), or any other person carrying on insurance business and regulated under the law of any place outside Hong Kong;

(e) any scheme which-

(i) is a collective investment scheme authorised under section 104 of the SFO; or

(ii) is similarly constituted under the law of any place outside Hong Kong and, if it is regulated under the law of such place, is permitted to be operated under the law of such place,

or any person by whom any such scheme is operated;

(f) any registered scheme as defined in section 2(1) of the Mandatory Provident Fund Schemes Ordinance (Cap. 485 of the Laws of Hong Kong), or its constituent fund as defined in section 2 of the Mandatory Provident Fund Schemes (General) Regulation (Cap. 485A of the Laws of Hong Kong), or any person who, in relation to any such registered scheme, is an approved trustee or service provider as defined in section 2(1) of that Ordinance or who is an investment manager of any such registered scheme or constituent fund;

(g) any scheme which-

(i) is a registered scheme as defined in section 2(1) of the Occupational Retirement Schemes Ordinance (Cap. 426 of the Laws of Hong Kong); or

(ii) is an offshore scheme as defined in section 2(1) of that Ordinance and, if it is regulated under the law of the place in which it is domiciled, is permitted to be operated under the law of such place,

or any person who, in relation to any such scheme, is an administrator as defined in section 2(1) of that Ordinance;

(h) any government (other than a municipal government authority), any institution which performs the functions of a central bank, or any multilateral agency;

(i) except for the purposes of Schedule 5 to the SFO, any corporation which is-

(i) a wholly owned subsidiary of-

(A) an intermediary, or any other person carrying on the business of the provision of investment services and regulated under the law of any place outside Hong Kong; or

(B) an authorized financial institution, or any bank which is not an authorised financial institution but is regulated under the law of any place outside Hong Kong;

(ii) a holding company which holds all the issued share capital of-

(A) an intermediary, or any other person carrying on the business of the provision of investment services and regulated under the law of any place outside Hong Kong; or

(B) an authorized financial institution, or any bank which is not an authorised financial institution but is regulated under the law of any place outside Hong Kong; or

(iii) any other wholly owned subsidiary of a holding company referred to in subparagraph (ii); or

(j) any person of a class which is prescribed by rules made under section 397 of the SFO for the purposes of this paragraph as within the meaning of this definition for the purposes of the provisions of the SFO, or to the extent that it is prescribed by rules so made as within the meaning of this definition for the purposes of any provision of the SFO.

The first of such classes of additional “professional investor”, under the Securities and Futures (Professional Investor) Rules (Cap. 571D of the Laws of Hong Kong), are:

(k) any trust corporation (registered under Part VIII of the Trustee Ordinance (Cap. 29 of the Laws of Hong Kong) or the equivalent overseas) having been entrusted under the trust or trusts of which it acts as a trustee with total assets of not less than HK$40 million or its equivalent in any foreign currency at the relevant date (see below) or-

(i) as stated in the most recent audited financial statement prepared-

(A) in respect of the trust corporation; and

(B) within 16 months before the relevant date;

(ii) as ascertained by referring to one or more audited financial statements, each being the most recent audited financial statement, prepared-

(A) in respect of the trust or any of the trust; and

(B) within 16 months before the relevant date; or

(iii) as ascertained by referring to one or more custodian (see below) statements issued to the trust corporation-

(A) in respect of the trust or any of the trusts; and

(B) within 12 months before the relevant date;

(l) any individual, either alone or with any of his associates (the spouse or any child) on a joint account, having a portfolio (see below) of not less than HK$8 million or its equivalent in any foreign currency at the relevant date or-

(i) as stated in a certificate issued by an auditor or a certified public accountant of the individual within 12 months before the relevant date; or

(ii)  as ascertained by referring to one or more custodian statements issued to the individual (either alone or with the associate) within 12 months before the relevant date;

(m) any corporation or partnership having-

(i) a portfolio of not less than HK$8 million or its equivalent in any foreign currency; or

(ii) total assets of not less than HK$40 million or its equivalent in any foreign currency, at the relevant date, or as ascertained by referring to-

(iii) the most recent audited financial statement prepared-

(A) in respect of the corporation or partnership (as the case may be); and

(B) within 16 months before the relevant date; or

(iv) one or more custodian statements issued to the corporation or partnership (as the case may be) within 12 months before the relevant date; and

(n) any corporation the sole business of which is to hold investments and which at the relevant date is wholly owned by any one or more of the following persons-

(i) a trust corporation that falls within the description in paragraph (k);

(ii) an individual who, either alone or with any of his or her associates on a joint account, falls within the description in paragraph (k);

(iii) a corporation that falls within the description in paragraph (m);

(iv) a partnership that falls within the description in paragraph (m).

For the purposes of paragraphs (k) to (n) above:

  • “relevant date” means the date on which the advertisement, invitation or document (made in respect of securities or structured products or interests in any collective investment scheme, which is intended to be disposed of only to professional investors), is issued, or possessed for the purposes of issue;
  • “custodian” means (i) a corporation whose principal business is to act as a securities custodian, or (ii) an authorised financial institution under the Banking Ordinance (Cap. 155 of the Laws of Hong Kong); an overseas bank; a corporation licensed under the SFO; or an overseas financial intermediary, whose business includes acting as a custodian; and
  • “portfolio” means a portfolio comprising any of the following (i) securities; (ii) certificates of deposit issued by an authorised financial institution under the Banking Ordinance (Cap, 155 of the Laws of Hong Kong) or an overseas bank; and (iii) except for trust corporations, cash held by a custodian.

Institutional Investor / Accredited Investor Definition

An institutional investor as defined in Section 4A of the SFA and Securities and Futures (Classes of Investors) Regulations 2018 is:

(a) the Singapore Government;

(b) a statutory board as may be prescribed by regulations made under section 341 of the SFA, as prescribed in the Second Schedule of the Securities and Futures (Classes of Investors) Regulations 2018;

(c) an entity that is wholly and beneficially owned, whether directly or indirectly, by a central government of a country and whose principal activity is —

(i) to manage its own funds;

(ii) to manage the funds of the central government of that country (which may include the reserves of that central government and any pension or provident fund of that country); or

(iii) to manage the funds (which may include the reserves of that central government and any pension or provident fund of that country) of another entity that is wholly and beneficially owned, whether directly or indirectly, by the central government of that country;

(d) any entity —

(i) that is wholly and beneficially owned, whether directly or indirectly, by the central government of a country; and

(ii) whose funds are managed by an entity mentioned in sub‑paragraph (c);

(e) a bank that is licensed under the Banking Act 1970;

(f) a merchant bank that is licensed under the Banking Act 1970;

(g) a finance company that is licensed under the Finance Companies Act 1967;

(h) a company or co‑operative society that is licensed under the Insurance Act 1966 to carry on insurance business in Singapore;

(i) a company licensed under the Trust Companies Act 2005;

(j) a holder of a capital markets services licence;

(k) an approved exchange;

(l) a recognised market operator;

(m) an approved clearing house;

(n) a recognised clearing house;

(o) a licensed trade repository;

(p) a licensed foreign trade repository;

(q) an approved holding company;

(r) a Depository as defined in section 81SF of the SFA;

(s) a pension fund, or collective investment scheme, whether constituted in Singapore or elsewhere;

(t) a person (other than an individual) who carries on the business of dealing in bonds with accredited investors or expert investors;

(u) a designated market‑maker as defined in paragraph 1 of the Second Schedule to the Securities and Futures (Licensing and Conduct of Business) Regulations;

(v) a headquarters company or Finance and Treasury Centre which carries on a class of business involving fund management, where such business has been approved as a qualifying service in relation to that headquarters company or Finance and Treasury Centre under section 43D(2)(a) or 43E(2)(a) of the Income Tax Act 1947;

(w) a person who undertakes fund management activity (whether in Singapore or elsewhere) on behalf of not more than 30 qualified investors;

(x) a Service Company (as defined in regulation 2 of the Insurance (Lloyd’s Asia Scheme) Regulations) which carries on business as an agent of a member of Lloyd’s;

(y) a corporation the entire share capital of which is owned by an institutional investor or by persons all of whom are institutional investors;

(z) a partnership (other than a limited liability partnership within the meaning of the Limited Liability Partnerships Act 2005) in which each partner is an institutional investor.

An accredited investor as defined in Section 4A of the SFA and Securities and Futures (Classes of Investors) Regulations 2018 is:

(i)  an individual —

(A) whose net personal assets exceed in value $2 million (or its equivalent in a foreign currency) or such other amount as the Authority may prescribe in place of the first amount;

(B) whose financial assets (net of any related liabilities) exceed in value $1 million (or its equivalent in a foreign currency) or such other amount as the Authority may prescribe in place of the first amount, where “financial asset” means —

(BA) a deposit as defined in section 4B of the Banking Act 1970;

(BB) an investment product as defined in section 2(1) of the Financial Advisers Act 2001; or

(BC) any other asset as may be prescribed by regulations made under section 341; or

(C) whose income in the preceding 12 months is not less than $300,000 (or its equivalent in a foreign currency) or such other amount as the Authority may prescribe in place of the first amount;

(ii)  a corporation with net assets exceeding $10 million in value (or its equivalent in a foreign currency) or such other amount as the Authority may prescribe, in place of the first amount, as determined by —

(A) the most recent audited balance sheet of the corporation; or

(B) where the corporation is not required to prepare audited accounts regularly, a balance sheet of the corporation certified by the corporation as giving a true and fair view of the state of affairs of the corporation as of the date of the balance sheet, which date must be within the preceding 12 months;

(iii) A trustee of a trust which all the beneficiaries are accredited investors; or

(iv) A trustee of a trust which the subject matter exceeds S$10 million; or

(v) An entity (other than a corporation) with net assets exceeding S$10 million (or its equivalent in a foreign currency) in value. “Entity” includes an unincorporated association, a partnership and the government of any state, but does not include a trust; or

(vi) A partnership (other than a limited liability partnership) in which every partner is an accredited investor; or

(vii) A corporation which the entire share capital is owned by one or more persons, all of whom are accredited investors.

Continuation solutions encompass a host of transaction types in which a GP secures interim liquidity and/or additional primary capital for their LPs in a strongly performing asset, or set of assets, that the GP will continue to own and control. Specifically, they include continuation funds, new funds created by GPs for the purpose of acquiring the asset(s) that continue to be managed by the same GP and capitalized by one or several secondary buyers, or equity recapitalizations involving a direct equity or structured equity investment into a portfolio company. These transactions can also include a parallel investment from the GP’s latest fund into that same pool of assets (a “cross-fund trade”).