2025 Midyear Market Outlook
June 10, 2025
June 10, 2025 | 11 min read
While many predicted a degree of uncertainty heading into 2025, it has emerged as a defining theme of the year – as has the persistent resilience of private markets.
The first half of 2025 has been defined by a changing global geopolitical landscape and public market volatility. While private markets are not immune to this level of unpredictability, the signs so far are of a calm and collected response. A strong start to the year’s activity levels is giving way to a more measured investment and exit pace, but several strategies stand to gain as the need for GP and LP liquidity becomes more pressing. This environment plays to the strengths of secondary transactions — in private equity, credit and infrastructure — and co-investments. Meanwhile, in primaries, GPs will continue to focus on long-term value, muting volatility and building resilience in investor portfolios.
Private markets chart a steady course in an uncertain market
Following a year of economic stabilization, the first half of 2025 has followed a rockier path as US tariffs unsettled financial systems, and the prospect of more regionally focused economies emerged. It remains unclear where tariffs will ultimately land in the medium-term, but their initial announcement created a highly uncertain environment for investors and policymakers alike.
Accordingly, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its global GDP growth forecasts downward in its April report by 0.5% for 2025 to 2.8%.1 Even so, a softening US-China trade relationship at the time of writing and a UK-US agreement give cause for a potentially more optimistic scenario.
Despite a volatile backdrop, global private equity buying activity held up well in the first three months of 2025. Continuing the recovery seen in 2024, private equity deal values rose to $495 billion in Q1 2025, surpassing the Q4 2024 total of $462 billion and a near-40% jump on the same period last year ($345 billion).2 At just over 4,800, deal count in the first quarter was down slightly from Q4 2024 but also above Q1 2024. However, we have seen a slowdown in dealmaking in recent months and it seems unlikely that Q2 figures will show sustained momentum.
Global private equity deal values rose in the first quarter
Source: Pitchbook Q1 2025 Global PE First Look, data as of March 31, 2025.
In the months to come, it’s unclear whether private equity will resume signing new deals at a similar pace to Q1. Some firms will wait until the dust settles on global trade policies and we may well see planned transactions delayed. Yet in our experience, volatility often opens up new avenues. There could be an uptick in more opportunistic playbooks as firms selectively take advantage of dislocation and potentially attractive pricing.
Also building on momentum from the end of last year, global private equity exits had a strong start to 2025, much as we had anticipated. At $302 billion, exit values had their strongest three months in Q1 2025 since the end of 2021. It was also up by 80% on the Q1 2024 total.3 This will have released some much-needed liquidity, but, as with new deals, exit activity may well fall back over the coming months.
Global exit values rose in early 2025
Source: PitchBook, Q1 2025 Global PE First Look, data as of March 31, 2025.
Lower liquidity in recent years continues to constrain new commitments. Even with recent rises in exits and increased secondary market activity, a big backlog of inventory awaits full realization: $4 trillion sits in global buyout portfolios, up from around $1 trillion a decade prior.4 As we explore later, the secondary market will play an important role in easing some of this pressure, but with a sustained pick-up in exits now pushed out to later in 2025, fundraising will remain challenging this year.
Wild swings in public markets may have unnerved investors in the past six months, but private markets continue to stay the course, offering investors an increasingly deep and broad opportunity set across asset type and investment strategy. In this context, many investors remain convinced of private equity’s benefits: a recent McKinsey & Company survey showed that 84% of LPs expect to maintain or increase their allocations in 2025, with 63% indicating private equity’s risk-adjusted returns were outperforming other asset classes, and 54% seeing it as a diversifier.5 And, while private markets are a global business, varied regional dynamics provide a diversified set of opportunities.
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Regional updates
North America: In pursuit of value and clarity
Buoyed by robust debt markets, US private equity picked up the pace in early 2025, with a 25% rise in Q1 value invested over the previous quarter and a jump of 36% on Q1 2024.6 Take-privates were particularly strong in the period, with the quarter’s total public to private deal value standing at $51 billion, or around one third of the total for full-year 2024 and 2023.7 Early exit totals were also encouraging, following on from recovering numbers in 2024: Q1 2025 saw $187 billion of realizations, up 45% from the previous quarter, boosted by several IPOs. However, fundraising has yet to pick up as the liquidity squeeze continued to constrain LP’s commitment activity — the $57 billion raised in Q1 2025 is even lower than the $77 billion collected by US funds the previous year.8
Private equity deal activity by quarter
Source: PitchBook Q1 2025 US PE Breakdown, data as of March 31, 2025.
US venture capital activity was more mixed, with a 19% increase in deal value (to $92 billion) for the first three months of 2025 versus Q4 2024, although several large AI deals skewed the rise accounting for 71% of VC activity.9 Meanwhile, VC fundraising slowed further in the face of continued lower liquidity.
Despite a Q1 uptick in both private equity and VC activity, investors paused for breath in the second quarter as they processed the slew of proposed policy changes and tariffs. Much as elsewhere in the world, uncertainty prevails. And, while we are confident that managers will continue to seek out resilient, high-quality assets and uncover opportunities that shine in times of volatility, we expect overall activity levels to be more muted than we might have anticipated at the start of 2025 although there could be selective exceptions.
Europe: Evolving opportunity
As the flywheel of activity in Europe across investments, fundraising, and exits had largely become unstuck by the end of 2024, we entered 2025 hopeful. Fundraising for 2024 totalled €122 billion,10 bolstered by the final closing of fundraises of several large-cap buyout funds, making for a very good year. While several marquee large buyout GPs are back in the market, we anticipate overall figures for 2025 to be lower than last year as some of those raises are expected to carry over into 2026.
While investment activity in Europe rebounded strongly in 2024 and into Q1 of 2025, the increased geopolitical tensions and the prospect of tariffs has dampened European private equity deal activity since April. At €129 billion,11 the value of investments for the first three months of this year was an improvement over the same period in 2024. At a time when managers had shown willingness to lean in, uncertainty caused by the tariff announcements and the potential impact felt across the globe has reduced investment and exit activity. The duration of this current slowdown will be a function of when managers have greater clarity around the political backdrop. With lower interest rates in Europe (the Bank of England has so far announced two cuts, and the European Central Bank three), a more supportive monetary policy environment should aid the recovery. And while we also expect slower exit and investment activity to continue through the year, a bright spot could be small- and mid-market sponsor-to-sponsor exits which may resume more quickly.
Private equity deal activity by quarter
Source: PitchBook Q1 2025 European PE First Look, data as of March 31, 2025.
Europe has historically shown resilience through volatility, and we expect this period to be no different. As we’ve discussed previously, the opportunity for digitalization across traditional sectors remains throughout the continent as Europe continues to spend only a fraction of the US on technology and innovation. Looking ahead, Europe intends to increase spending in sectors that promote national security, including defense, energy resilience, and food security — growth trends that we expect to endure over the coming decade, if not much longer.
The region’s experienced managers operate in a mature ecosystem replete with value-oriented opportunities. Europe’s fragmented company landscape offers strong consolidation potential, and with a relative lower valuation environment, there are plenty of compelling deals to be done.
APAC: Strength in diverse markets
APAC’s diverse markets demonstrated robust private equity activity since the beginning of 2025, with significant year-on-year increases in Q1: 31% in investments, 74% in fundraising, and an impressive 134% in exits.12 The region seems to be emerging from its correction cycle and reaching a new equilibrium in deal stage between venture/growth and buyouts, as the latter has become nearly two thirds of investment value since 2023.
Steady rise in Asia buyouts
Source: AVCJ, APER, EMPEA, supplemented by HarbourVest analysis of other activity in the market, as of March 31, 2025. Excludes investments by sovereign wealth funds, RMB funds and other non-PE financial investors
India stood out as the leading market for new investments, accounting for 41% of the capital deployed in Q1 across APAC,13 driven by large domestic GPs and pan-regional investors pursuing buyout and significant minority transactions. Meanwhile Japan has also become a fertile hunting ground for buyout managers, as the country’s low interest-rate environment continues to provide attractive leverage financing for private equity transactions. APAC’s buyout market is less mature compared to that of the US and Europe, providing private equity managers with more opportunities to drive operating growth through professionalization and digitalization across sectors.
Throughout 2025, we expect GPs to focus on delivering more liquidity to LPs through a combination of full exits in the form of trade sales or sponsor-to-sponsor exits, and partial liquidity in the form of dividend recapitalizations and secondary share sell-downs (in the case of venture investments) in an IPO, or post-listing. Overall, Asia public markets have performed strongly in Q1. We are also encouraged by the positive momentum in IPO activity across key Asian exchanges since 2024, with over $50 billion raised (in IPO proceeds) in 2024,14 tracking ahead of other global markets. In times like this, we can see the power of APAC’s regional diversity — both within a global portfolio, and within the region itself — to build resilient investment portfolios across public market conditions, economic cycles, and fundamental growth drivers.
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Two private market trends for the remainder of 2025
Trend 1: Private markets will prove durable in unpredictable times
Sands are shifting all around investors. Geopolitical tensions are rising, the prospect of de-globalization and tariffs are affecting supply chains, the rise of AI is changing business models, and the direction of short-term inflation is shrouded in uncertainty. It’s no small wonder that public markets and the VIX have been erratic over the past six months.
Public markets have experienced wild swings in recent times
(November 1, 2024 — May 5, 2025)
Source: Share Price Data: S&P Capital IQ as of 05 May 2025. Public Market Indices, Equities, Commodities, and Cryptocurrency rebased to 0 as of November 1, 2024.
Against this backdrop, investors may need to seek shelter by building out diversification in their portfolios. Private markets will be a key part of this. In fact, we expect them to become a core allocation, shedding their “alternative” label in the not-too-distant future.
Clearly, the external environment has an impact on private markets’ investment, exit, and fundraising levels, with liquidity pressures a particularly enduring feature of the past few years. It also has some effect on individual portfolio companies or assets. Yet in stark contrast to public markets, private markets have remained constant, with portfolios almost exactly where they were at the end of last year and without the volatility in between.
Our recently released HarbourVest Q1 benchmark analysis on projected valuations bears this out. Global buyouts, for example, stayed the same in Q1 2025 (versus a decline of 1.2% in total returns for the MSCI ACWI), US private equity recorded a fall of just 1% — far smaller than the drop of 9.5% for the Russell 2000 — and US VC dropped by just 3%, against a decrease of 10.3% for the NASDAQ Composite.
Source: HarbourVest investment, monitoring, and due diligence activities. Not representative of any HarbourVest fund, account, and not representative of any HarbourVest experience. Net of 5% assumed annual management fees and carried interest.
And there are several other private markets advantages that make it especially well-suited to unpredictable times. Private markets’ hands-on and concentrated ownership are supporting management teams through uncertainty to create value, professionalize and improve operations, grow companies, and drive innovation. When market conditions are more favorable — and they will become so — these stronger businesses will be well positioned for exit.
Private markets’ long investment horizons are also driving value, both by focusing minds on more durable business plans (as opposed to trying to meet quarterly reporting targets) and through the compounding effects of sustained growth and strategic improvements.
Return history backs this up. A $100 investment in the MSCI ACWI back in 2014 would have grown by 2.6x by 2024; the same investment in global private equity would have delivered 3.8x.
Global private equity has outperformed public markets
Source: MSCI Private Capital Solutions Benchmarks as of December 31, 2024, unless otherwise noted; US Venture includes Equity VC and Equity Expansion Capital; US Buyouts includes Buyout; Europe includes All PE Equity/Debt; Asia includes All PE Equity/Debt; Global Private Equity includes all buyout, growth equity, and venture funds as of September 30, 2024. For illustrative purposes only. These trailing IRRs do not represent actual returns experienced by any HarbourVest investor. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Private markets performance expressed over short periods of time (especially 1 year or less) may produce IRRs that are not representative of the expected and realized IRRs of funds, vintages, and strategies that have been invested for longer periods of time. Consequently, short term performance is not a reliable indication of the fund’s expected or future performance. Investors are encouraged to review private markets performance over longer periods of time and should not make investment decisions based solely on investment performance.
These are just some of the reasons we continue to see so many companies exit from public markets to execute a multi-year transformation with private equity partners. Qualtrics, Darktrace, and Walgreens are just a few major names opting to remain private even as they reach mega-valuations. SpaceX, ByteDance, Stripe, Databricks, OpenAI, and Anthropic are other examples of companies valued in the tens or hundreds of billion dollars that have so far stayed private. As public markets become increasingly concentrated — the Magnificent Seven, for example, accounted for more than half of the S&P 500 gain in 202315 — the range of companies open to private markets investing is only expanding.
Further, expansion of private markets to include private equity, private credit, infrastructure, real assets, plus secondaries and co-investments in all of the above, are building a vast and growing opportunity set. Added to this is the broadening access points open to investors, from traditional closed-ended funds to evergreens and semi-liquid structures.
These are all critical diversifiers for investors attempting to chart their way through today’s uncertainties by spreading risk, building flexible exposure, and enhancing overall portfolio performance.
Trend 2: Liquidity pressures and secondary markets in private equity, private credit, and infrastructure
Liquidity pressures are driving significant activity in secondary markets across private equity, private credit, and infrastructure. Last year saw record deal volume of $160 billion in private equity secondaries16 as both LPs and GPs sought liquidity in a challenging exit market. This trend is expected to continue in 2025, with weakened investor confidence and poor visibility on trade barriers pushing expectations of a sustained exit ramp-up to later this year.
Secondaries saw record volume in 2024
Source: Evercore 2024 Secondary Market Survey, data as of December 31, 2024. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
In LP-led transactions, high-profile US investors have placed large portfolios on the secondary market, driven by exposure realignment and increased demand for liquidity. Distributions between 2022 and 2024 stood at just 13% of NAV, illustrating how stuck capital in the system has been.17 Should public markets suffer a prolonged fall, LPs could face the denominator effect, triggering secondary sales at steep discounts.
GP-led deals accounted for 13% of global private equity exits in 2024, up from just 5% in 202018 and this proportion could grow further through the year should exit avenues prove rocky. Continuation vehicles — involving both single assets and multi-assets — are already commonplace and they are likely to be the structure of choice for most GPs in 2025. Even so, we will continue to see demand for flexible solutions from secondaries investors where appropriate, including LP tender offers and preferred equity deals. As sell-side demand for secondaries has grown, dry powder has not kept pace, with dedicated secondary capital falling to 1.4x annual deal volume in 2024.19 Investors with capital to deploy are well-positioned to select strong deals at attractive valuations.
GP-led deal volume continues to grow
Source: William Blair Secondary Market Survey, data as of December 2024. Other includes annex funds, strip sales, and tender offers.
Liquidity constraints are also fostering strong primary co-investment opportunities. GPs are increasingly turning to co-investments to cement ties with LPs, provide firepower to complete deals, and construct well-diversified portfolios. Low distributions are forcing LPs to make tough decisions about the managers they back, leading to a decline in portfolio-level diversification. Co-investing (and co-investment funds) is providing many LPs with an efficient solution for filling the diversification gap as they have narrowed their GP rosters.
Demand for secondaries is not limited to private equity. Private credit and infrastructure have grown rapidly over the past decade, with secondary markets in these asset classes burgeoning as funds mature and investors seek liquidity. Global private debt AUM rose from just over $500 billion in 2014 to more than $1.8 trillion by 2024,20 providing a deepening pool of opportunity for secondaries buyers. This growth is set to continue, with nearly half of investors surveyed intending to increase their allocations to private debt this year.
Private debt AUM has grown rapidly
Source: PitchBook, 2024 Annual Global Private Debt Report, data as of June 30, 2024.
Higher private credit AUM, elongated holding periods for private credit funds, and increased investor exposure are creating structural liquidity needs for both LPs and GPs. Private credit secondaries are expected to see significant deal flow this year, with projections indicating that secondary volume will more than double to $31 billion by 2028.21 The private credit secondaries market is even less capitalized than its private equity cousin, with just 4% of secondary capital dedicated to private credit strategies.22
Private credit secondary transaction volume continues to grow
Sources: HarbourVest base case estimates as of December 31, 2024. Based on Campbell Lutyens private credit secondary market volumes, data as of November 30, 2024, and Evercore FY 2024 Secondary Market Review, data as of December 31, 2024. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Secondaries are also the fastest growing segment within the infrastructure market. Infrastructure AUM has risen from less than $400 billion a decade ago to more than $1.6 trillion,23 with annual growth projected at slightly over 10% for the next five years.24 Last year saw record infrastructure secondary market volume of nearly $16 billion, with projections indicating further growth to $21 billion by 2027.25 We anticipate even higher transaction volumes in 2025, amplified by recent market dislocations increasing the volume of traditional secondary purchases, as infrastructure’s resilience and low correlation with other asset classes make it an attractive investment during uncertain times — something we are already seeing reflected in our pipeline. We expect the supply-demand imbalance for secondary transactions to persist or improve with more motivated sellers, while underlying portfolio companies continue to demonstrate resilience driven by uncorrelated business models and secular growth trends around power and data center demand.
Meanwhile, GP-led infrastructure secondaries accounted for ~42% of volume last year,26 and this proportion is expected to remain significant as GPs seek to put more money into star assets while offering LPs a liquidity option.
Infrastructure secondaries projected to grow strongly
Source: Campbell Lutyens Infrastructure Market Report Q4 2024, data as of November 30, 2024. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
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Conclusion: Calm will prevail
Unpredictable times call for cool heads. While public markets have gone in all directions this year, private markets have remained a haven of relative calm. There is no doubt that current uncertainty will impact activity in the short-term, with liquidity issues a particularly enduring feature of today’s market. Yet, as in the past, private markets will demonstrate agility, adapting to unforeseen circumstances and finding opportunity by looking beyond noisy headlines. The asset class’s capacity for innovation will serve it — and its investors — well. Private markets offer an increasingly large and varied opportunity set across an expanding range of access points, asset type, duration, and return profile to create an all-season asset class that can reduce risk and dampen volatility for institutional and individual investors alike.
Footnotes
- International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook – A Critical Juncture amid Policy Shifts, April 2025.
- PitchBook, Q1 2025 Global PE First Look, data as of March 31, 2025.
- PitchBook, Q1 2025 Global PE First Look, data as of March 31, 2025.
- Bain & Company, Global Private Equity Report 2025, data as of December 31, 2024.
- McKinsey & Company, Global Private Markets Report 2025, Braced for shifting weather, data as of January 2025.
- PitchBook, Q1 2025 US PE Breakdown, data as of March 31, 2025.
- PitchBook, Q1 2025 US PE Breakdown, data as of March 31, 2025.
- PitchBook, Q1 2025 US PE Breakdown, data as of March 31, 2025.
- PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor Q1 2025, data as of March 31, 2025.
- PitchBook, 2024 Annual European PE Breakdown, data as of December 31, 2024.
- PitchBook Q1 2025 European PE First Look, data as of March 31, 2025.
- AVCJ, APER, EMPEA, supplemented by HarbourVest analysis of other activity in the market, data as of March 31, 2025. Excludes investments by sovereign wealth funds, RMB funds and other non-PE financial investors.
- AVCJ, APER, EMPEA, supplemented by HarbourVest analysis of other activity in the market, data as of March 31, 2025. Excludes investments by sovereign wealth funds, RMB funds and other non-PE financial investors.
- AVCJ, APER, EMPEA, supplemented by HarbourVest analysis of other activity in the market, data as of March 31, 2025. Excludes investments by sovereign wealth funds, RMB funds and other non-PE financial investors.
- Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Counterpoint Global Insights, Stock Market Concentration: How much is too much? dated June 4, 2024.
- Evercore 2024 Secondary Market Survey, data as of December 31, 2024.
- MSCI Private Capital Solutions, data as of September 30, 2024. Distribution rate is calculated as annualized calculation of period distributions / previous valuation. Periods less than one-year are not annualized.
- William Blair Secondary Market Survey, and Pitchbook, data as of December 31, 2024.
- Evercore FY 2024 Secondary Market Review, data as of December 31, 2024.
- PitchBook, 2024 Annual Global Private Debt Report, data as of December 31, 2024.
- HarbourVest base case estimates as of December 31, 2024. Based on Campbell Lutyens private credit secondary market volumes, data as of November 30, 2024, and Evercore FY 2024 Secondary Market Review, data as of December 31, 2024. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
- Evercore, FY 2024 Secondary Market Review, data as of December 31, 2024.
- Preqin, data as of 9/30/24.
- Preqin 2025 Global Report Infrastructure, data as of September 30, 2024.
- Campbell Lutyens, Infrastructure Market Report Q4 2024, data as of November 30, 2024.
- Evercore, FY 2024 Secondary Market Review, data as of December 31, 2024.
Disclosure
HarbourVest Partners, LLC is a registered investment adviser under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. This material is solely for informational purposes and should not be viewed as a current or past recommendation or an offer to sell or the solicitation to buy securities or adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed herein represent the current, good faith views of the author(s) at the time of publication, are not definitive investment advice, and should not be relied upon as such. This material has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, HarbourVest does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information. There is no assurance that any events or projections will occur, and outcomes may be significantly different than the opinions shown here. This information, including any projections concerning financial market performance, is based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. The information contained herein must be kept strictly confidential and may not be reproduced or redistributed in any format without the express written approval of HarbourVest.
Nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, offer, recommendation, representation of suitability, legal advice, tax advice, or endorsement of any security or investment and should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in HarbourVest funds or in any other investment decision.
HarbourVest Private Equity Benchmarks (“HV PE Benchmarks”). Market analysis is not representative of any HarbourVest product. The HV PE Benchmarks reflect a compilation of PE partnership and transactional data drawn from internal and external sources and related estimated valuations of such companies by HarbourVest for the illustrated period (which in turn are based on HarbourVest’s subjective assumptions). The HV PE Benchmarks represent net performance based on an all-in fees and expenses assumption of 500 basis points. The actual fees and expenses applicable to the underlying investments included in the HV PE Benchmarks may be materially higher than the assumed fees and expenses, which would lower the returns. The HV PE Benchmarks data universe information has been developed internally based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, HarbourVest does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information or HarbourVest’s related valuation estimates or assumptions, which may be materially inaccurate. The HV PE Benchmarks are intended to be representative of the broader PE market and do not reflect any views, analysis, or recommendation by HarbourVest with respect to any particular investment and are not representative of the investment performance of any HarbourVest investment or the experience of any investor in any HarbourVest product. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Definitions:
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The MSCI AC World® Index (ACWI) is designed to measure the performance of publicly-traded large and mid-capitalization equity securities in global developed and emerging markets. The MSCI ACWI Index is maintained by Morgan Stanley Capital International (“MSCI”) and has historically captured approximately 85% coverage of the free float-adjusted market capitalization of its publicly-traded global equity opportunity set.
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The Euronext 100 Index is a stock market index of blue chip stocks on the pan-European exchange, Euronext. It comprises the 100 largest and most liquid stocks traded on Euronext.
The Hang Seng Index (HSI) is a market-capitalisation-weighted stock market index in Hong Kong, adjusted for free float. It tracks and records daily changes in the largest companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and serves as the primary indicator of overall market performance in Hong Kong.
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The VIX Index is a calculation designed to produce a measure of constant, 30-day expected volatility of the U.S. stock market, derived from real-time, mid-quote prices of S&P 500® Index (SPX℠) call and put options.
