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2025 Private Market Predictions Scorecard: What Hit, What Missed, and What's Next?

December 15, 2025 | 4 min read

As we wrap up 2025, it’s time to revisit the bold predictions I made at the start of the year and see how reality has stacked up. Some calls—like private equity going vertical and the rise of unicorns, decacorns, and hectacorns—were spot on. Others, like record-breaking buyouts and IPOs, as well as AI’s promise to awaken nuclear from its slumber, got partway there. Liquidity as the “word of the year” hit some Q2 speed bumps, but with current momentum building, I wouldn’t be surprised if we are yellow or green by the time you are reading this. And as for private wealth? It’s not just coming—it is here, and its advancement is creating quite a stir. Let’s see how good (or bad) my 2025 Private Market Predictions were, what’s still evolving, and what surprised me in 2025.

1. Did private equity go vertical?

Hit. Consistent with any evolving and maturing market, we are seeing consolidation and new partnerships as the industry seeks efficiency and ways to capture the full economic benefit of the value chain. This is only accelerating as the line between public and private blurs. For example:

Not long ago, managers evolved from funds of one to funds of many. Now they are consolidating back to funds of few with laser focus on core competencies. Discerning LPs with rigorous underwriting are forcing the issue.
BlackRock, its peers, and even traditional private equity firms are charging into private markets. Industry Ventures and Pathway Advisors, with Goldman and Clearlake as suitors, have entered the narrative. It seems as though we are only at the beginning of this ecosystem evolution.
An entire technology industry is being built to democratize private markets. AI, digital marketplaces, data transparency, and blockchain/tokenization are rapidly taking the “private” out of private markets. Forge, EquityZen, Preqin, and With Intelligence are the first of what will likely be many more tech-enablement acquisitions.

2. Unicorn, decacorn, hectacorn?

Hit. Innovation is compounding at a pace we’ve never seen. Emerging industries, including space and AI, have allowed startups to become market leaders, defining a new category I call mega-venture. These new giants are marginalizing unicorn status as they stretch toward $500 billion or even trillion-dollar valuations, further fueling the debate around “what is venture?”

SpaceX systematically tenders every six months at ever-higher valuations. At the time of this writing, SpaceX is worth $400 billion, marching toward the exclusive 500 Club.
OpenAI raised twice this year—once at $300 billion and again at $500 billion. As a top 20 company in the world by value and the most highly valued private company ever, it should not rest on its laurels because others are working hard to chase it down.
Though the prior two are setting the pace, Anthropic, Databricks, Tether, and Stripe are drafting off of this unprecedented success.

3. The buyout and the IPO: Did we see the greatest of all time?

On the fence. Coming into the year, the largest leveraged buyout and largest venture-backed IPO records had stood for 18 years and 13 years, respectively. I felt the stars were aligned for both records to fall. At the time of this writing—with the year not quite over yet!—I was half right, while other markets posted their own G.O.A.T.s.

The EA take-private at $55 billion shattered the prior record that stood for 18 years. Though impressive, this current record may last less than 18 months.
Though still standing, Meta’s $104 billion IPO from 2012 may see its record fall by orders of magnitude in 2026. Just recently, OpenAI signaled a potential 2026 raise of $60 billion at a trillion-dollar valuation.
Finally, sticking with the compression from years to months, there are parts of the market where records stood for mere days. The largest debt financing ever—$20 billion committed by JP Morgan as part of the EA deal—lasted less than 30 days before Blue Owl turned heads, committing $27 billion to Hyperion on October 27. 27 must be someone’s lucky number!

4. Nuclear's Benjamin Button moment: Was AI the elixir for aging backwards?

On the fence. The AI innovation cycle is transforming capital markets and driving renewed interest in sectors like energy and infrastructure. While the promise of reversing aging (meaning relighting nuclear power that’s been dormant for 15 years) remains speculative, the broader impact of AI is undeniable. From reshaping global competition to fueling data center demand, AI’s ripple effects are being felt across public and private markets.

Public markets are leading indicators for all other markets. The leading nuclear-focused ETF, URA, is up 63% as of November 17, 2025.
If history holds true, infrastructure teams will front-run PE teams in nuclear the same way they did in data centers.

5. When the levee breaks: Was liquidity the word of 2025?

Miss. Liquidity was supposed to be the word of the year—not because of the lack of it but because of the amount of it. However, so far, it’s been elusive. Bid-ask spreads have narrowed, and there’s plenty of dry powder, but the dam seems to be holding. April’s tariff disruption temporarily froze deal activity, but as spring turned to summer, the equity and debt markets regained momentum, bringing sellers and buyers back to the deal table.

With the cost of debt declining, refinancing events on the horizon, and sponsors eager to deploy capital, we have anecdotal evidence of M&A bankers pulling all-nighters as we accelerate toward the year-end finish line.
As we entered Q4 2025, PitchBook confirmed that distribution-to-NAV ratios for buyouts have returned to long-term trend levels—above 20% for the first time since 2021. We may see that 2025 ends up being a record year for liquidity excluding the anomalous 2021.

6. Private wealth is not coming—it's here: Did it bifurcate the market?

Hit. If liquidity did not steal the show, private wealth certainly did. Individuals are asking for the same private market access institutions have had for decades. New onramps are being built, most notably evergreen semi-liquid, which appears to be the preferred structure for the individual investor. Now, with evergreen alongside closed-end drawdown and permanent capital, the illiquidity premium theory is about to be tested. And as this new entrant steps into an asset class which has long been solely owned by the institutions, we are starting to see institutional incumbents treat private markets like private property, putting up “no trespassing” signs for all to see.

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2025 scorecard: NostraVOSSmus or not so much?

Three solid hits, two TBDs, and only one miss. If we all had those results when we went to Vegas, fewer things would have to stay there. Happy holidays, happy new year, and keep an eye out for my 2026 Private Market Predictions.

I’ll give my take on renewables out of necessity, consider the 50/500/5000 club, apply economic value-add to the 2/20 business model, raise a provocative question on how to read the headlines to predict the future, and more!

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HarbourVest Partners, LLC (“HarbourVest”) is a registered investment adviser under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. This material is solely for informational purposes; the information should not be viewed as a current or past recommendation or an offer to sell or the solicitation to buy securities or adopt any investment strategy. In addition, the information contained in this document (i) may not be relied upon by any current or prospective investor and (ii) has not been prepared for marketing purposes. In all cases, interested parties should conduct their own investigation and analysis of any information set forth herein and consult with their own advisors. HarbourVest has not acted in any investment advisory, brokerage or similar capacity by virtue of supplying this information. The opinions expressed herein represent the current, good faith views of the author(s) at the time of publication, are not definitive investment advice, and should not be relied upon as such. This material has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, HarbourVest does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information. The information is subject to change without notice and HarbourVest has no obligation to update you. There is no assurance that any events or projections will occur, and outcomes may be significantly different than the opinions shown here. This information, including any projections concerning financial market performance, is based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. The information contained herein must be kept strictly confidential and may not be reproduced or redistributed in any format without the express written approval of HarbourVest.

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Professional Investor Definition

“Professional Investor” under the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Cap. 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong) (the “SFO”) and its subsidiary legislation) means:

(a) any recognised exchange company, recognised clearing house, recognised exchange controller or recognised investor compensation company, or any person authorised to provide automated trading services under section 95(2) of the SFO;

(b) any intermediary, or any other person carrying on the business of the provision of investment services and regulated under the law of any place outside Hong Kong;

(c) any authorized financial institution, or any bank which is not an authorised financial institution but is regulated under the law of any place outside Hong Kong;

(d) any insurer authorized under the Insurance Ordinance (Cap. 41 of the Laws of Hong Kong), or any other person carrying on insurance business and regulated under the law of any place outside Hong Kong;

(e) any scheme which-

(i) is a collective investment scheme authorised under section 104 of the SFO; or

(ii) is similarly constituted under the law of any place outside Hong Kong and, if it is regulated under the law of such place, is permitted to be operated under the law of such place,

or any person by whom any such scheme is operated;

(f) any registered scheme as defined in section 2(1) of the Mandatory Provident Fund Schemes Ordinance (Cap. 485 of the Laws of Hong Kong), or its constituent fund as defined in section 2 of the Mandatory Provident Fund Schemes (General) Regulation (Cap. 485A of the Laws of Hong Kong), or any person who, in relation to any such registered scheme, is an approved trustee or service provider as defined in section 2(1) of that Ordinance or who is an investment manager of any such registered scheme or constituent fund;

(g) any scheme which-

(i) is a registered scheme as defined in section 2(1) of the Occupational Retirement Schemes Ordinance (Cap. 426 of the Laws of Hong Kong); or

(ii) is an offshore scheme as defined in section 2(1) of that Ordinance and, if it is regulated under the law of the place in which it is domiciled, is permitted to be operated under the law of such place,

or any person who, in relation to any such scheme, is an administrator as defined in section 2(1) of that Ordinance;

(h) any government (other than a municipal government authority), any institution which performs the functions of a central bank, or any multilateral agency;

(i) except for the purposes of Schedule 5 to the SFO, any corporation which is-

(i) a wholly owned subsidiary of-

(A) an intermediary, or any other person carrying on the business of the provision of investment services and regulated under the law of any place outside Hong Kong; or

(B) an authorized financial institution, or any bank which is not an authorised financial institution but is regulated under the law of any place outside Hong Kong;

(ii) a holding company which holds all the issued share capital of-

(A) an intermediary, or any other person carrying on the business of the provision of investment services and regulated under the law of any place outside Hong Kong; or

(B) an authorized financial institution, or any bank which is not an authorised financial institution but is regulated under the law of any place outside Hong Kong; or

(iii) any other wholly owned subsidiary of a holding company referred to in subparagraph (ii); or

(j) any person of a class which is prescribed by rules made under section 397 of the SFO for the purposes of this paragraph as within the meaning of this definition for the purposes of the provisions of the SFO, or to the extent that it is prescribed by rules so made as within the meaning of this definition for the purposes of any provision of the SFO.

The first of such classes of additional “professional investor”, under the Securities and Futures (Professional Investor) Rules (Cap. 571D of the Laws of Hong Kong), are:

(k) any trust corporation (registered under Part VIII of the Trustee Ordinance (Cap. 29 of the Laws of Hong Kong) or the equivalent overseas) having been entrusted under the trust or trusts of which it acts as a trustee with total assets of not less than HK$40 million or its equivalent in any foreign currency at the relevant date (see below) or-

(i) as stated in the most recent audited financial statement prepared-

(A) in respect of the trust corporation; and

(B) within 16 months before the relevant date;

(ii) as ascertained by referring to one or more audited financial statements, each being the most recent audited financial statement, prepared-

(A) in respect of the trust or any of the trust; and

(B) within 16 months before the relevant date; or

(iii) as ascertained by referring to one or more custodian (see below) statements issued to the trust corporation-

(A) in respect of the trust or any of the trusts; and

(B) within 12 months before the relevant date;

(l) any individual, either alone or with any of his associates (the spouse or any child) on a joint account, having a portfolio (see below) of not less than HK$8 million or its equivalent in any foreign currency at the relevant date or-

(i) as stated in a certificate issued by an auditor or a certified public accountant of the individual within 12 months before the relevant date; or

(ii) as ascertained by referring to one or more custodian statements issued to the individual (either alone or with the associate) within 12 months before the relevant date;

(m) any corporation or partnership having-

(i) a portfolio of not less than HK$8 million or its equivalent in any foreign currency; or

(ii) total assets of not less than HK$40 million or its equivalent in any foreign currency, at the relevant date, or as ascertained by referring to-

(iii) the most recent audited financial statement prepared-

(A) in respect of the corporation or partnership (as the case may be); and

(B) within 16 months before the relevant date; or

(iv) one or more custodian statements issued to the corporation or partnership (as the case may be) within 12 months before the relevant date; and

(n) any corporation the sole business of which is to hold investments and which at the relevant date is wholly owned by any one or more of the following persons-

(i) a trust corporation that falls within the description in paragraph (k);

(ii) an individual who, either alone or with any of his or her associates on a joint account, falls within the description in paragraph (k);

(iii) a corporation that falls within the description in paragraph (m);

(iv) a partnership that falls within the description in paragraph (m).

For the purposes of paragraphs (k) to (n) above:

“relevant date” means the date on which the advertisement, invitation or document (made in respect of securities or structured products or interests in any collective investment scheme, which is intended to be disposed of only to professional investors), is issued, or possessed for the purposes of issue;
“custodian” means (i) a corporation whose principal business is to act as a securities custodian, or (ii) an authorised financial institution under the Banking Ordinance (Cap. 155 of the Laws of Hong Kong); an overseas bank; a corporation licensed under the SFO; or an overseas financial intermediary, whose business includes acting as a custodian; and
“portfolio” means a portfolio comprising any of the following (i) securities; (ii) certificates of deposit issued by an authorised financial institution under the Banking Ordinance (Cap, 155 of the Laws of Hong Kong) or an overseas bank; and (iii) except for trust corporations, cash held by a custodian.

Institutional Investor / Accredited Investor Definition

An institutional investor as defined in Section 4A of the SFA and Securities and Futures (Classes of Investors) Regulations 2018 is:

(a) the Singapore Government;

(b) a statutory board as may be prescribed by regulations made under section 341 of the SFA, as prescribed in the Second Schedule of the Securities and Futures (Classes of Investors) Regulations 2018;

(c) an entity that is wholly and beneficially owned, whether directly or indirectly, by a central government of a country and whose principal activity is —

(i) to manage its own funds;

(ii) to manage the funds of the central government of that country (which may include the reserves of that central government and any pension or provident fund of that country); or

(iii) to manage the funds (which may include the reserves of that central government and any pension or provident fund of that country) of another entity that is wholly and beneficially owned, whether directly or indirectly, by the central government of that country;

(d) any entity —

(i) that is wholly and beneficially owned, whether directly or indirectly, by the central government of a country; and

(ii) whose funds are managed by an entity mentioned in sub‑paragraph (c);

(e) a bank that is licensed under the Banking Act 1970;

(f) a merchant bank that is licensed under the Banking Act 1970;

(g) a finance company that is licensed under the Finance Companies Act 1967;

(h) a company or co‑operative society that is licensed under the Insurance Act 1966 to carry on insurance business in Singapore;

(i) a company licensed under the Trust Companies Act 2005;

(j) a holder of a capital markets services licence;

(k) an approved exchange;

(l) a recognised market operator;

(m) an approved clearing house;

(n) a recognised clearing house;

(o) a licensed trade repository;

(p) a licensed foreign trade repository;

(q) an approved holding company;

(r) a Depository as defined in section 81SF of the SFA;

(s) a pension fund, or collective investment scheme, whether constituted in Singapore or elsewhere;

(t) a person (other than an individual) who carries on the business of dealing in bonds with accredited investors or expert investors;

(u) a designated market‑maker as defined in paragraph 1 of the Second Schedule to the Securities and Futures (Licensing and Conduct of Business) Regulations;

(v) a headquarters company or Finance and Treasury Centre which carries on a class of business involving fund management, where such business has been approved as a qualifying service in relation to that headquarters company or Finance and Treasury Centre under section 43D(2)(a) or 43E(2)(a) of the Income Tax Act 1947;

(w) a person who undertakes fund management activity (whether in Singapore or elsewhere) on behalf of not more than 30 qualified investors;

(x) a Service Company (as defined in regulation 2 of the Insurance (Lloyd’s Asia Scheme) Regulations) which carries on business as an agent of a member of Lloyd’s;

(y) a corporation the entire share capital of which is owned by an institutional investor or by persons all of whom are institutional investors;

(z) a partnership (other than a limited liability partnership within the meaning of the Limited Liability Partnerships Act 2005) in which each partner is an institutional investor.

An accredited investor as defined in Section 4A of the SFA and Securities and Futures (Classes of Investors) Regulations 2018 is:

(i) an individual —

(A) whose net personal assets exceed in value $2 million (or its equivalent in a foreign currency) or such other amount as the Authority may prescribe in place of the first amount;

(B) whose financial assets (net of any related liabilities) exceed in value $1 million (or its equivalent in a foreign currency) or such other amount as the Authority may prescribe in place of the first amount, where “financial asset” means —

(BA) a deposit as defined in section 4B of the Banking Act 1970;

(BB) an investment product as defined in section 2(1) of the Financial Advisers Act 2001; or

(BC) any other asset as may be prescribed by regulations made under section 341; or

(C) whose income in the preceding 12 months is not less than $300,000 (or its equivalent in a foreign currency) or such other amount as the Authority may prescribe in place of the first amount;

(ii) a corporation with net assets exceeding $10 million in value (or its equivalent in a foreign currency) or such other amount as the Authority may prescribe, in place of the first amount, as determined by —

(A) the most recent audited balance sheet of the corporation; or

(B) where the corporation is not required to prepare audited accounts regularly, a balance sheet of the corporation certified by the corporation as giving a true and fair view of the state of affairs of the corporation as of the date of the balance sheet, which date must be within the preceding 12 months;

(iii) A trustee of a trust which all the beneficiaries are accredited investors; or

(iv) A trustee of a trust which the subject matter exceeds S$10 million; or

(v) An entity (other than a corporation) with net assets exceeding S$10 million (or its equivalent in a foreign currency) in value. “Entity” includes an unincorporated association, a partnership and the government of any state, but does not include a trust; or

(vi) A partnership (other than a limited liability partnership) in which every partner is an accredited investor; or

(vii) A corporation which the entire share capital is owned by one or more persons, all of whom are accredited investors.